In before we found out…

This entry has been written from an ‘out of character’ perspective to discuss player response to the upcoming Industrial revamp.

So I was kind of expecting more dev blog’s on the upcoming Industrial overhaul to be out by now.  There is a huge amount of discussion, speculation and predictions of doom going around about what we know so far, and what it all means.

People seem to be falling into three camps right now, those withholding judgement until we know more, those predicting the death of high sec industry and those predicting the death of null sec industry.  The common theme is that everyone is regarding the whole thing with a wary uncertainty, except for those who made their minds up already based on the first two of the six dev blogs.

I really don’t know how things are going to shake out at this point.  Until we see CCP Greyscale’s pair of blogs I don’t think that anyone really does.  There are those who believe that the changes announced so far to remote BPO usage in POS will destroy corp-level industry  due to the security risks of moving BPO libraries about.  It’s a very valid concern, and could be where the new ‘teams’ concept fits into things, but we probably won’t know until blog six.

There are concerns that the changes will make super capital production a logistical nightmare, although in all honesty I could be more sympathetic.  Super capital proliferation has been a serious issue in EVE for many years and it may be, although I’m not betting on it, that CCP are rolling their answer to the problem into all of this.  On the other hand they may have miscalculated.  Place thy bets.  I would love it if CCP were to reveal their intentions to address this issue even if it does come years later than it should have.

There are concerns that we are about to see a mass land grab of high sec moons as soon as CCP remove the faction standings requirement to anchor them.  I can see that happening, and is a change I’m not immediately keen on.  I think that CCP want to allow newer players to get access to more advanced forms of industry without having to grind standings, but by the same token it will likely lead to a flood of offline control towers in a couple of months with practically every moon occupied unless some thought is given to how those moons can be reclaimed later.  Small start up industrial corps of newbie players are unlikely to war dec much larger entities.

But still, I remain cautiously optimistic about what we know so far. Fine ‘tuning’ of the designs will very likely be needed to get it all right, but I think that people being worried about all of this is actually a good sign.  Players from all corners of New Eden are pointing at each other claiming that other play styles are getting the better deal and that they will loose out.  That sounds like we may be staring at a relatively well balanced set of changes.  EVE needs a good shaking up and CCP are certainly challenging our complacency here!  The established ways of doing things ‘right’ could be changing dramatically in a few weeks/months and that forces the players to adapt or die.  Those who can figure out how to best run their EVE business under the new reality will be the winners, those who insist on keeping things as they are will loose.

Change is good.  EVE needs to continue its evolution in order to become a better game and it is high time the industrial side of the game was shaken up.  It may not be the most comfortable process and may force players to adapt their behaviour and expectations (maybe it isn’t a great idea for every member of the CFC to own a Titan….), but I think it is going to be worthwhile and breathe some fresh air into the game and I look forward to seeing that play out.

But maybe I’m wrong.  Maybe all the doom-filled predictions hold true.  Maybe we really are looking at an impending economic melt down in EVE.  You know what?  That would be pretty interesting to watch too! 😉

Fanfest is now under a week away, so make with them dev blogs CCP!

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7 Responses to In before we found out…

  1. Sir Prime / Bjoern says:

    In all likelihood they’re deliberately withholding the other blogs as they know established players aren’t dumb and will raise merry hell at FF in the glare of publicity.

    I see nothing that helps larger industrial production and a pretty ui doesn’t hide the fact that raised costs and risk will hammer industry. Its a clever shell game that CCP are playing.

    Irony is that I see far less manufacturing poses being needed in future as the cost/risk side of using them will climb significantly.

    • Ugleb says:

      I suspect that the feedback they are getting from the ‘grand plan’ blog has prompted a lot of re-writing and re-wording of the others to try and clarify misunderstandings or just plain sanity check what they about to say. The thing about Fanfest is that they pretty much have to let the cat out of the bag or go on stage and say nothing at all for three days.

      As for POS use, I can see lots of people anchoring them, running for a couple of months then letting them go offline as they realise they didn’t need one as much as they thought they would.

  2. Sir Prime / Bjoern says:

    The planners (and eve has many) will just look at the cost/risk of manufacturing in a pos and the cost of manufacturing in station. Its the make or break calculation.

    The only advantage currently of pos manufacturing is time if a faster multiplier and as many free slots as you can fit on the pos. The big negative is the fuel cost and poses are horribly expensive nowadays due to the isotopes price. Your slot rental cost effectively is pos fuel/number of slots.

    The advantages of a station is lower costs and risk, the disadvantage is limited slots.

    So basically you make a calculation as to which works best for you – how many slots do you need, does the pos module speed multiplier outweigh the pos costs and any material multiplier penalties (mostly 0.75/1.1).

    Under the new system the slot limitation is replaced by a sliding cost scale…

    Calculation becomes:

    POS fuel cost, speed multiplier, material penalty and risk.

    vs

    Station slot cost.

    And the problem should be obvious. If CCP puts slot costs high enough to force us to look at poses 95+% of players get hammered with huge cost increases and industrial production plummets or prices soar through the roof (it doesn’t happen as players just look at the mineral cost of production generally unless a ship is so good people will pay a lot more). If CCP keep slot prices reasonable.. manufacturing poses become redundant.

    it worries me that CCP seem to know so little about industry that they can’t see that but then Greyscale has long been a Dev that drops disastrous comments that panic players (remember the pos changes he wanted like no pos shields)… and then the plans get shelved. now they’re making him the posterchild for an expansion and that’s extremely worrying.

    Just as a FYI risks at a pos will soar as various groups I know are already planning campaigns to take manufacturing/science poses as the loot will soar with bpo’s being forced to be used from the pos.

    Probably shouldn’t mention that but I’m a pvping industrialist so industrialists have a place in my heart. 😉

    • Ugleb says:

      It is hard to see how costs won’t rise if the base fess are at all relevant (currently there are insignificant) but it will probably be determined by how these scaling costs are applied. If the ‘activity threshold’ is too low then it will be crippling, too high and costs still won’t matter in most cases.

      I do have one good thing to offer about Greyscale though. He was the poster child for crimewatch 2.0, and that turned out pretty well despite all the dread.

    • Ugleb says:

      Oh yeah, I too expect the loss of many a POS lab bpo library. But still, many will likely panic over the changes and fling up their new high sec pos only to let it fall silent when they realise how much it costs to fuel (and that they need to put fuel in!) and that they probably don’t need it anyway. A sea of offline towers shall ensue unless they all get shot down by loot hunters or competition for space surprisingly becomes a thing.

  3. Sir Prime / Bjoern says:

    By the way, I presume you weren’t at the last two Fanfests as it was wall to wall Dust or zero content.

    The key piece presentation last year said it all…. CCP Seagull told us she has a product cycle and plans.

    Nothing about what either were just that she had one!

    Most of the PL peeps had already left before the end but I was dumb enough to sit there in case of something interesting.

    That Fanfest proved that CCP can indeed say nothing for 3 days.

    CCP Seagull if you ever read this – most eve players are smart, dedicated and pour huge time into the game. We already know about project management because that’s what we do at work. Look at the PL attendees – lawyers, fighter pilots, people like myself who run 140 teams across a country, etc etc. Your audience knows at least as much as you about project management. You’re there to inspire and educate us as to the future of Eve as we’re your hardcore fan base. Please bear that in mind!

    • Ugleb says:

      I was there last year and found the Dust keynote heavily padded as they slowly made the point that they were adding the missing racial suits. 😉

      Fanfest is often used as a marketing platform pitched as much towards the heavy media presence as it is to the players. But we do normally get actual information as well as the aspirational future vision stuff that may never happen. Or it does but 2 years later. At least I enjoy the show!

      I expect this year will be wall to wall valkyrie.

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